If things keep going as they have, we will see a fantastic wild card race this season. As we head into Week 10, the Chiefs, Bills, Titans, and Steelers are leading their respective divisions. In the NFC, the Packers, Saints, Seahawks, and Eagles are standing on top of their divisions.
It’s hard to believe that there isn’t a winning record in the NFC East. I must say, this division has been a disappointment for a few years straight. This brings me right into the first soft line this week: the Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants.
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ New York Giants
The NFC East is a mess. When a division is this bad for this long, it makes you almost wish there was more of an NBA playoff seeding setup. Because at this point, none of these four teams deserves to be in the postseason. But … it is what it is.
Here we have a division rivalry game featuring two of the worst teams in the league. The first thing I noticed is that this line is sitting with a field goal and a hook.
If you like the Giants to cover this number, you better hop on now. Because the Giants are a part of a massive market that bets on them no matter what. Is it stupid to blind bet a lousy team? Of course. However, the Giants might be the right call in this situation.
Looking at my power ratings, I believe this game should have opened at either -1.5 or -1 in favor of the Eagles. So, 3.5-points seems like a lot to give the Giants at home. Remember, these two teams played just a couple of weeks ago, and the Eagles barely won at Lincoln Financial, 22-21. I guess the 23-9 victory over the Cowboys is reason enough to create a ridiculous point spread against the Giants.
If we look at just the offenses, we would come up with roughly a 3.5-points spread. The Eagles average 32.25 per game, while the Giants are putting up just 18.7. But the Giants defense is over a point better on average than the Eagles’ So, we are back down to a 2-point spread, not even considering the fact that division rivalry games tend to be more competitive. Also, both of these teams are still beat up and have players out for disciplinary reasons.
I think that the Eagles get their third straight win … but this one comes down to a field goal. Heck, even some top computer models have this one coming down to a tie game. The Giants only lost by a point in Philly and then by 2-points to a tough, Brady-led Tampa Bay team. Get the Giants at +3.5 before ever New Yorker with a betting account pushes the line down to -3 or perhaps even -2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers -13.5
The line is already moving down; I see many spots at -13. So, in my humble opinion, it’s getting softer. Once again, when we start with the power ratings, the opening line should have 16 or 16.5 points.
Some guys in Green Bay have been in quarantine but should be back. We also have a couple of players coming off concussion protocols that are still officially questionable but likely to play. For the Packers, Funchess and Deguara are the only two listed as out or doubtful. That said, for the Jags, Gardner Minshew, Dede Westbrook, Ryquell Armstead, Josh Oliver, Rashaan Melvin, Leon Jacobs, Abry Jones, Al Woods, Doug Costin, Lerentee McCray, Shaquille Quarterman, Dontavius Russell, Josh Lambo, Bruce Miller are all either doubtful or out.
Another thing to consider is the Jaguars’ road defense is pitiful. They’ve allowed 33.75 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Packers have a top-10 home defense that allows just a smidge over 21. However, that has been against some good teams, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are anything but.
Give me the Packers -13 all day. We’re getting a free field goal with this one, so get it while it’s hot!